WASHINGTON — Mother Nature turned on the rain this spring across the US Corn Belt, and it looks like she’s not ready to stop anytime soon. Now that summer is in full swing, and corn planting is essentially wrapped up, let’s take a look at what the month of July has in store for the main growing region. Looking at both the month and the Corn Belt as a whole, July 2019 is currently forecast to trend the 14th warmest and 2nd wettest in 28+ years. While temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler than last July, precipitation is forecast to be well above last year and normal. If realized, region-wide precipitation would be most similar to July 2010. Breaking the month into halves, the first half of the month is expected to trend much wetter than normal while some drier than normal trends are possible during the latter half of the month.
Of course, state by state trends across the region can and will vary. In Iowa, state-average monthly trends are forecast to be the 11th coldest and 4th wettest in 28+ years for July. Temperatures are expected to trend slightly cooler than both last year and normal, while precipitation trends well above both last year and normal. Monthly trends in Illinois are projected to closely mimic the regional trends, ranking as the 13th warmest and 2nd wettest in 28+ years. Overall trends don’t look too far off from those seen just a few years ago in July of 2016. July trends for Indiana as a whole are forecast to rank as the 12th warmest and 4th wettest in 28+ years, with rainfall above normal and temperatures near normal and last year. Heading into the North Central US, the Dakotas and Nebraska are looking at a cooler and wetter than normal July, which could cause the states’ corn crop to develop at a somewhat slower pace this year. Monthly trends in North Dakota are forecast to be the 5th coldest and 3rd wettest for the month of July in 28+ years while South Dakota is expected to see the 7th coldest and 3rd wettest July in 28+ years. Nebraska monthly trends are currently forecast to rank as the 8th coldest and 2nd wettest in 28+ years.
A wetter than normal July isn’t only expected across the Corn Belt, however. Wetter than normal trends are projected to impact the East Coast and extend west into northern WY, MT, northern ID, and eastern WA. A drier than normal month is expected for the remainder of the Northwest, down through the Rockies, and into Texas. Warmer than normal monthly trends are in the forecast for the East Coast, Texas, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Cooler trends are expected for states in the North Central and Northern Rockies including MN, ND, SD, NE, WY, and MT.
Meanwhile, down in Brazil, harvest of the safrinha corn is making good progress as drier weather has been favorable for field work. In main producer Mato Grosso, progress is just over 40% complete. Making about a 16% advancement in one week, the state’s harvest pace is now almost twice as fast as last year. Many producers are reporting record yields throughout this early harvest period. In Parana, the second-largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil, harvest is about 34% complete with 82% of the remaining crop said to be in good condition. Wetter trends have slowed progress a bit recently and could continue to hamper progress over the next couple weeks. Current production estimates have safrinha corn output at 70.6 million tons and full season corn at 26.3 million tons. If realized, nearly three-quarters of Brazil’s corn production would come from the second crop this season.
For more WeatherTrends360, click here.