Mid-April typically brings the start of corn planting for some in the heart of the U.S. Corn Belt. As of Monday, April 17th, core states such as Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa were just getting started with this year’s crop. Early progress in these states is generally slower than last year and average so far. States farther south, such as Texas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Kansas, and North Carolina are further along when it comes to corn. Texas has already surpassed the halfway mark for corn planting, which is typical for the state. Tennessee, North Carolina, and Missouri continue to plant at a slower than average pace, with Missouri’s progress about half of what is average. A wet start to April, and above normal rainfall in the short-range outlook for many, could cause some planting delays this year.
This week, the wet spot has been from the central Plains across the Mid-South and into the Northeast while the Southeast has been mainly drier. Severe thunderstorms are expected today (April 20th) in the southern Great Lakes and into parts of the Midwest. The threat for severe storms will shift farther south as we head into the weekend. Next week, wetter weather will extend from the Northwest to the Great Lakes and possibly along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Wetter trends will be prevalent in a large portion of the Corn Belt, although extreme eastern areas could see drier conditions. These wetter trends could delay planting.
As we head towards the end of April, we’ll need to monitor the possibility of cold air digging down across the West with snow possible down into Denver. Counterbalancing this winter-like dip in temperatures in the West would be a summer-like warm-up in the East. While not a certainty, this is definitely something to keep an eye on for late next week.
In other weather news, although the official start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season is still a little over a month away, the first subtropical storm of the season has been identified by the National Hurricane Center. Subtropical Depression One is far out in the Atlantic and poses no threat to the U.S.
Looking ahead to the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, weathertrends360 is forecasting activity to be near or below normal for the season. We are likely entering a weak El Niño Summer and those tend to suppress activity in the Atlantic Basin. But, not all El Niño’s are the same and we saw firsthand with this past weak La Niña Winter that California got a ton of rain/snow in a pattern that doesn’t typically bring that much rain. It only takes one big land-falling hurricane in an otherwise weak season to make it a bad year. Ocean temperatures are warmer than average in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean but still trending cooler than last year so we’re still really under weak La Niña-type conditions.
Our highest risk area is the northwest Gulf of Mexico as water temperatures are well above average. Remnants of tropical systems could make it up into the southern Plains bringing wetter weather there, but for the far northern Plains drier conditions are expected this summer. Frequent cool fronts in the Northeast this Summer are likely to provide some protection for any major impacts from Virginia to Maine. It’s still likely to be a very wet year in the Northeast after a pretty bad drought last year.
Stronger systems would be more likely to develop in the Gulf or western Caribbean as opposed to the late season Cape Verde storms that come off of Africa as those are more likely to encounter upper-level wind shear as El Niño peaks in the Summer. Another contributing factor is the cooler Atlantic basin in the main development region where many systems form. Overall, the tropical pattern most closely resembles 1957 and 2002. Most weather firms and government agencies/academics are forecasting a below average season – a rare consensus. Again, we want to stress that it only takes one storm to cause devastating impacts, so as always, be alert and informed during the hurricane season.
For more WeatherTrends360, click here.