Temperature trends this coming week (July 9-15) are going to split the Corn Belt in half with cooler trends to the East and warmer trends to the West. Main producers like Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, as well as the entire Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are forecast to trend slightly cooler than normal this coming week. However, as we head into Iowa, the trends begin to flip. Portions of Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota are expected to trend slightly warmer than normal next week while much warmer than normal temperatures remain in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas. While a few days could see temperatures >15F above normal in these states, for the week as a whole, trends will be generally 5-15F above normal. Above normal rainfall will also be held mainly to the central and eastern Corn Belt, while Kansas and much of Nebraska trend drier than normal for the week. The Dakotas are expected to receive some rain next week as well, with a couple pockets of above normal precipitation, but it will not be enough to put a dent in the existing drought.
Drought conditions as of Tuesday (7/4) morning had expanded somewhat from the previous week. Although the area in North Dakota experiencing extreme drought grew from 25% to 29.3%, a small portion of eastern ND is no longer in drought conditions (6%). The drought conditions in South Dakota are very similar to the previous week, with only a small portion in the northern part of the state seeing an increase in drought conditions. However, with the heat and dryness these states received this week, drought conditions could expand and/or worsen in next week’s release. Moderate drought conditions are now present for 8.7% of Nebraska, mainly in the northeast portion of the state. 32% remains drought/dryness free, while the remaining 59.3% was still abnormally dry. Moderate drought conditions expanded in portions of southern and northwestern Iowa since last week as well. Up from 1.3% last week, 8.9% of the state is now categorized as being in moderate drought. Down from 55% last week, now only 49.4% of the state has no drought/abnormal dryness. Rains next week in Iowa could help limit the spread of these drier conditions.
Harvest of the safrinha corn crop continues across central Brazil and conditions over the next couple weeks will be conducive for advancing the harvest. Over the next couple weeks, temperatures in much of central Brazil are expected to trend a few degrees below normal while precipitation trends near to below normal. Central Brazil is currently in the heart of their dry period so even near normal rainfall will be very little. Main producer Mato Grosso saw generally normal temperatures this week but will trend below normal next week.
 Brazil soybeans for the 2016/17 season reached a total production of at least 113 million tons, a new record for the country. This is well up from last year’s weather-ravaged crop that produced only 95.5 million tons. So far, only 58% of this record crop has been sold, compared to 76% by this time last year. Low prices continue to stifle sales this season. Early sales of the 2017/18 crop are less than last year as well, with only 4.3% sold, compared to 21% last year. This year’s corn crop is also expected to break the country’s record. Storage issues will likely force farmers to sell at least one of their crops as the corn crop can only be stored outside until rains return in September.
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