The Dakotas have been no stranger to drought this summer. While drought condition in these states remains mainly unchanged from last week, drought continues to expand in main corn producing state, Iowa. The North Dakota drought is currently rated as 5.1% exceptional, 38.7% extreme, 19.1% severe, 19.1% moderate, 17.6% abnormally dry, and only 0.4% in the far southeastern corner of the state with no drought. South Dakota’s drought conditions saw some slight improvement in parts of the central and northeastern parts of the state. Current drought ratings are 5.8% extreme, 41.3% severe, 28.7% moderate, 13.8% abnormally dry, and 10.4% with no drought. There were minimal changes to drought conditions in Nebraska from the previous week. As we head into Iowa though, some bigger week-over-week changes in drought occurred. While the northeast, east central, and a couple counties in southwestern IA remain drought-free, conditions are worsening for those in the south central and central parts of the state. For the first time this summer, part of the state – 2.5% to be exact – is now categorized as being in extreme drought. Moderate drought conditions also expanded about 3% in central Iowa. Current drought ratings for the state are 2.5% extreme, 11.3% severe, 30.8% moderate, 26.2% abnormally dry, and 29.2% no drought.
Over the next 7 days, rainfall is forecast to once again trend below normal for the Dakotas and portions of Iowa. In IA, much of the rainfall is currently expected to fall across the eastern portions of the state, where drought conditions are minimal to none. Coupled with daytime highs averaging 5-10F above normal for the next 7 days, drought conditions could see another increase. In total contrast, however, the eastern Corn Belt will trend cooler and wetter than normal over the next 7 days. While the eastern Corn Belt has been spared from the heat and drought this summer, too much moisture could start to cause some issues for crops in the area. Drier trends look to move into the region for the 8-14 day forecast period.
Down in Brazil, a near-perfect weather season is wrapping up with corn and soybean crops expected to bring in record productions. In their August report, Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, raised their estimates for total corn production (full season + safrinha) by 1.1 million tons to 97.1 million tons. If realized, this would represent a whopping 46.1% increase in production from last year. Last year’s crop was decimated by high heat and an early start to the dry season. Total production from the second corn crop (safrinha corn) is expected to be around 66.6 million tons this year, +63.5% larger than last year. Full-season corn production this year is estimated to have been 30.6 million tons, +18.5% larger than last year. Planting of full-season corn in southern Brazil typically begins in September, but farmers may plant as early as they deem conditions acceptable. Brazil soybean production estimates were also increased in the August report, with total production expected to reach 114.0 million tons. Planting of the 2017/18 soybean crop is not allowed to begin until the soybean-free period ends, which for several states is the middle of September. The soybean-free period is implemented each year to help limit the spread of rust and other disease from season to season.
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