Autumn may have officially begun last week, but temperatures across the Corn Belt over the next couple weeks will certainly make it seem like summer is hanging on. Over the next 7 days (9/28 – 10/04), temperatures across the Central US are forecast to trend 5-10F above normal, with the eastern Corn Belt trending 1-5F above normal. By the 8-14 day period (10/05 – 10/11), however, temperatures will soar well above normal for much of the country. A wide portion of the Central US and US Corn Belt is expected to see temperatures 10 to >15F above normal. High temperatures could reach into the mid-high 80s as far north as southern MN on a few days. A generally warmer than normal pattern is expected to persist in the Corn Belt until the end of October, minimizing the risk of frost/freeze for many in the heart of the Corn Belt until later in the month. However, the Northeast has the potential for a couple very chilly nights with lows dropping near freezing toward the end of the 8-14 day forecast period. Those in the region and even into Ohio could potentially see some frost.
While temperatures are expected to remain above normal, precipitation trends across the Corn Belt will be somewhat varied. Through 10/04, the Eastern Corn Belt and the Dakotas are forecast to trend much drier than normal with minimal rainfall, while the Central Corn Belt trends near to slightly wetter than normal. Much of the rainfall during this time period is expected in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, and northwestern Illinois. These trends are mirrored during the 8-14 day period, but with increased rainfall amounts across Iowa and Wisconsin. Drought conditions since last week have improved in eastern North Dakota and some areas of Iowa while conditions in South Dakota, Missouri, and Illinois remain generally unchanged.
Down in Brazil, the soybean-free period ended about two weeks ago, but planting is off to a slow start due to inadequate moisture. In main producing state, Mato Grosso, about 1% of the crop has already been planted. Most of this progress, however, has been in the western part of the state in fields that utilize irrigation. In the state of Parana, less than 1% of the total expected acreage has been planted thus far. Some of those fields will even need to be replanted as dry conditions have caused poor germination. Over the next 7 days, rains are forecast to spread across much of central and southern Brazil, providing farmers with the improved moisture they have been waiting for. While the northern portion of Mato Grosso will remain drier than normal in the 7-day timeframe, the rest of the state, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and Parana are expected to trend wetter than normal. Following the rains, conditions are forecast to return to a drier than normal pattern. While this will benefit planting efforts, any prolonged dryness could hurt the crop’s germination. October as a whole in Mato Grosso, is currently expected to receive near normal precipitation, trending less than last year and the 5th wettest in 26+ years.
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