WASHINGTON — While only about a quarter of the continental US saw a while Christmas this year, down from nearly 50% seen last year, more could see a white New Year’s Eve/Day. Although temperatures today are trending warmer than normal for a majority of the Plains, heavy snowfall is expected for many from Minnesota down to western Kansas, with additional snow falling in the West. As of Thursday morning, there were widespread Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, and even Blizzard Warnings already issued for much of Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, western Kansas, and into the very top of the Texas panhandle. Many areas are expected to see at least a half a foot of snow through Friday morning, but a number of areas could receive 8-12” with locally higher amounts.
As we head into Friday, the colder than normal temperature trends in the West begin to push their way into the Plains, while the East remains warmer than normal. Many west if the Mississippi River are expected to trend at least 5-10F below normal. With cold air in place and moisture available, northeastern Arizona, New Mexico, and southern Colorado are expected to pick up several inches of snow on Friday and Saturday.
On Saturday, much colder than normal temperatures are forecast across much of the Southwest, South Central, and Northern Plains. Many from Arizona to Texas could see temperatures fall as much as 10-15F below normal. Daytime highs in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma could struggle to rise above freezing while low temperatures could fall into the teens for some. With little to no snow cover expected in eastern Kansas and Oklahoma by the time the snow arrives, it could have a slight negative impact on winter wheat crops in these regions. Luckily, the cold doesn’t stick around long, and temperatures should moderate somewhat by the end of the weekend.
On New Year’s Eve, temperatures in the East are expected to trend above normal, with the Southeast trending well above normal. Temperature trends in the Plains will be somewhat mixed, while the West once again trends on the colder side. The greatest chance for snowfall on this day extends from Michigan’s Upper Peninsula southwestward into the Rockies. The potential for accumulating snowfall then spreads into more of the Midwest by New Year’s Day as another surge of very cold trends descends into the North Central US. In the East, however, New Year’s Day will bring temperatures largely 10 to >15F above normal. As mentioned last week, several forecasting models are predicting another polar vortex displacement to occur this winter, which could bring very cold conditions and an increased threat of snow across the central and eastern US anywhere from mid-January to March – winter is just getting started.
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