U.S. corn harvest is almost complete, with 95% of the crop having been harvested through this past weekend. While the beginning of harvest was met with wet conditions that slowed early progress, conditions took a turn for the more favorable during the latter half of harvest. Generally drier conditions during the second half of October and during November allowed farmers across the Corn Belt to play “catch-up” and bring progress within 3% of the 5-year average. At the end of October, harvest was 18% behind average. This growing season as a whole across the Corn Belt saw a mix of trends. Unlike last year, conditions in the eastern Corn Belt were more favorable as a somewhat cooler and wetter than normal summer benefitted crops in the area. In Illinois and Iowa, somewhat drier trends allowed drought conditions to move in during part of the summer, many of which have now been eradicated. Southeastern Iowa, however, is still dealing with some abnormal dryness and moderate drought conditions. Speaking of drought, the western Corn Belt and Upper Plains continue to battle drought conditions, as they have for much of the season. Generally warmer and drier than normal trends this season allowed drought to spread and worsen, with the Dakotas being the hardest hit. North and South Dakota are still dealing with moderate to severe drought conditions in the western half, while the eastern half is either drought-free or abnormally dry. These drier trends will have yields off from last year, while yields in the east are expected to see a bump from last year.
Meanwhile, down in Brazil, soybean planting is advancing. Planting of the crop experienced a similar trend to the U.S. corn harvest – a somewhat delayed or slow start, followed by a more favorable second half. Dry conditions earlier in Brazil’s season caused planting delays for several key producing areas such as the state of Goias and in northeastern Mato Grosso. However, rains arrived in these areas during November, allowing farmers to plant – or in some cases re-plant – their soybeans. Soybean planting has reached 84% complete, which is in-line with last year, ahead of the average of 79%, and represents an 11% improvement from the previous week. States such as Parana and Mato Grosso are essentially done planting, with only some sporadic areas needing to finish or re-plant. Farmers in Goias are still trying to catch up a bit but conditions are much more favorable than earlier in the season. Due to more favorable returns, some farmers in the state are even opting to plant their soybeans before their full-season corn. During December, precipitation trends in the key soybean growing states is forecast to vary. States such as Mato Grosso, Goias, and parts of Mato Grosso do Sul are expected to trend on the somewhat wetter than normal side, while more southern states like Sao Paulo, Parana, and Rio Grande do Sul trend on the drier side. The drier trends in the southern part of the country could cause some issues for the crop. However, near to slightly above normal rains are projected to spread across the soybean region in January.
For more WeatherTrends360, click here.