Morning Ag Clips logo
  • Subscribe ❯
  • PORTAL ❯
  • LOGIN ❯
  • By Keyword
  • By topic
  • By state
  • Home
  • Events
  • Jobs
  • Store
  • Advertise
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
  • Subscribe to our
    daily email
    ❯
  • Portal Registration❯
  • Login❯
  • policy
  • tractors & machinery
  • education
  • conservation
  • webinars
  • business
  • dairy
  • cattle
  • poultry
  • swine
  • corn
  • soybeans
  • organic
  • specialty crops
  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Idaho
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • Nebraska
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • South Carolina
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington
  • West Virginia
  • Wisconsin
  • Wyoming

Morning Ag Clips

  • By Keyword
  • By topic
  • By state
  • policy
  • tractors & machinery
  • education
  • conservation
  • webinars
  • business
  • dairy
  • cattle
  • poultry
  • swine
  • corn
  • soybeans
  • organic
  • specialty crops
  • Home
  • Events
  • Jobs
  • Store
  • Advertise
Home » Two percent more pork & higher prices
PORK INDUSTRY ... Comments

Two percent more pork & higher prices

It is important hog farmers keep further expansion to a minimum

PUBLISHED ON January 8, 2017

The last USDA Hogs and Pigs report issued in December estimated this year's supply of pork will be larger than most analysts expect. Todd Gleason has more on how that will happen. (Chris via Flickr)

URBANA, Ill. — The last USDA Hogs and Pigs report issued in December estimated this year’s supply of pork will be larger than most analysts expect. Todd Gleason has more on how that will happen.

U.S. pork producers, in the last quarter of 2016 set a pigs per litter record,10.63. For the whole of the year, the new annual record is 10.5 pigs per litter. Every sow is having more pigs. Given these numbers, the industry will increase pork output by about three percent this year says Purdue University Extension Agricultural Economist Chris Hurt.

Hurt : And that will be to 25.7 billion pounds. This represents a 12 percent increase since 2014 when PED reduced production and contributed to record high hog prices. Pork production will rise by two percent in the first-half of 2017 and by about four percent in the last-half.

What does this mean for the price of hogs? With three percent higher production one might expect annual prices to be lower, however there are additional items to consider says Chris Hurt.

Hurt : First, retail prices did drop in 2016, but there is opportunity for those prices to come down more. Lower retail prices will stimulate the quantity of pork that consumers purchase. Secondly, USDA expects exports to expand by five percent which will move more of the increased production to foreign customers. Finally, with the addition of new processing capacity, the farm-to-wholesale margins are expected to drop. Lower margins at the processing stage may contribute to stronger bids to hog producers.

Live hog prices are expected to be about $48 in 2017, $2 higher than in 2016. Chris Hurt predicts prices will average $45 in the first quarter, the very-low $50s in the second and the third quarters, and then drop to $43 in the final quarter of 2017. A range of $2 higher or lower would be reasonable for price projections. He expects costs of production are expected to be around $50 on a live weight basis in both 2016 and 2017 based on current feed price expectations.

Hurt : This means the industry operated at an estimated loss of about $12 per head in 2016 and is expected to have losses that average about $6 per head in 2017. Losses in the first quarter of 2017 are expected to be about $13 dollars per head. Modest profits may return in the second and third quarters. Then with a return to the largest losses of the year in the final quarter maybe around $18 per head.

Because the 2017 outlook is for weak returns the Purdue number cruncher says it is important hog farmers keep further expansion to a minimum. This will be difficult with new processing capacity coming in 2017 as those plants will want to stimulate some added production to fill their lines.

— Chris Hurt, Extension Agricultural Economist – Purdue University and Todd E. Gleason, Farm Broadcaster

For more news from Illinois, click here.

Click Here to find out more about your favorite topics

swine

Spread the word

Browse More Clips

On January 26, farmers and marketing experts will gather for a workshop on marketing strategies for specialty crops and diversified farms to help local farmers increase profits.

Specialty crop marketing workshop

illinois soybeans

N-P-K seminar

Primary Sidebar

MORE

ILLINOIS CLIPS

STAR initiative
STAR releases 2021 Annual Report
June 27, 2022
Covering human trafficking, vitamin D research, groundwater
June 26, 2022
ASI Research Update Podcast: Wool
June 26, 2022
Join Weld County Farm Bureau in partnership with the Colorado Motor Carrier Safety Division for a Compliance and Safety Workshop, meant to education agriculturalists about the rules and regulations for trucking. (Courtesy of Colorado Farm Bureau)
Illinois Pork's new CDL scholarship program
June 24, 2022
planting soybeans (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Public Domain), crop insurance
If planting delays, ‘stay in touch’ with crop insurance agents
June 24, 2022
  • Trending
  • Latest

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE...

Join Weld County Farm Bureau in partnership with the Colorado Motor Carrier Safety Division for a Compliance and Safety Workshop, meant to education agriculturalists about the rules and regulations for trucking. (Courtesy of Colorado Farm Bureau)
Illinois Pork's new CDL scholarship program
June 24, 2022
Purdue Farm Management Tour is July 19-20
June 24, 2022
U.S. Solicitor General supports AFBF challenge to CA Proposition 12
June 23, 2022
United Producers
UPI hires VP of strategy, communication and member services
June 23, 2022
Red meat exports deliver value back to corn and soybean producers, says study
June 20, 2022

Footer

MORNING AG CLIPS

  • Sponsors
  • About Us
  • Advertise with Us
  • Privacy Statement
  • Terms of Service
  • Customer & Technical Support

CONNECT WITH US

  • Like Us on Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

TRACK YOUR TRADE

  • Markets & Economy
  • Cattle Updates
  • Dairy News
  • Policy & Politics
  • Corn Alerts

QUICK LINKS

  • Account
  • Portal Membership
  • Invite Your Friends
  • Subscribe to RSS
  • WeatherTrends
  • Just Me, Kate

© 2022 Morning Ag Clips, LLC. All Rights Reserved.