ALLEGANY CO., N.Y. — Remember that old phrase “As the day doth lengthen, the cold doth strengthen”? What is that all about? The shortest day of the year, December 21, is not the coldest. Those days come in January and early February, as the days grow longer. What is going on? Scientists call it Response Time. Something happens and it takes the world time to respond.
This is why we grow wine grapes on the shores of the Finger Lakes and not here in Allegany County. A large body of water takes longer to heat up in spring, keeping the surroundings cooler, delaying flower budding and thereby avoiding a late frost. The reverse is true in fall, holding off the first killing frost.
This dynamic applies to global warming. Even if we were to totally stop our emissions of CO2 and CH4, the affects of our last half century’s production would keep on chugging along for another century. The levels would keep on rising with no further help from us – depressing thought.
Scientists are detectives, looking to the past to predict the future. Knowing what the world was like 60 million years ago, with an equally high CO2 ratio, we can predict what the world will be like for our grandchildren, not perfectly but with increasing accuracy. If we continue with business as usual, by the 22ndcentury the amount of CO2 will be 4 times higher and we will be back in the Eocene, 60 million years ago, a tropical world with no polar ice and sea level a good 250 feet higher. Interesting.
–M.L. Wells, Master Gardener,
Cornell Cooperative Extension of Allegany County
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