WASHINGTON — With the slowest planting pace in about 40 years, the intended corn acreage for the 2019 season in the US is still not fully planted. However, planting progress may very well be nearing completion, leaving a number of intended acres unplanted. As we’ve discussed for the past several weeks, the weather this spring for much of the Corn Belt has been anything but cooperative. Excessive rain has made it nearly impossible to do field work and at this point in the season, it’s typically not cost-effective to continue planting since later-planted corn crop yields diminish. As of earlier this week, Ohio and South Dakota were the furthest behind in planting, with 32% and 22% of the intended acreage left to go, respectively. Illinois and Indiana were 12% and 16% behind, respectively. Only three states have reportedly reached 100% planted – North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas – while several others are only a few points away – Iowa, Kentucky, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Kansas. Earlier this month, expected yields and total projected production were downgraded, but additional declines are possible once the full extent of unplanted acreage is realized.
Over the next 7 days, rains are expected to be heaviest from Ohio to southern Minnesota and south into Oklahoma. Over the next few days, severe weather is possible for much of the Central Plains and into the Midwest. Today, Thursday 6/20, the highest risk for severe weather is in the Carolinas. Strong winds could impact the Southeast today, while the threat for large hail and some tornadoes is present for the Mid-Missouri Valley.
Drought and dryness in the US continue to be minimal and scattered. While there was some improvement in conditions in the Southeast from last week, coastal Carolinas and southern Georgia are still experiencing some abnormal dryness or moderate drought. Northern North Dakota and northeastern Montana are also dealing with some drier conditions with some severe drought conditions now appearing in northern North Dakota. Some dryness and drought remain in New Mexico, southern Texas, and the Pacific Northwest as well.
Looking ahead to July, monthly trends are forecast to be wetter than last year for much of the Corn Belt, while temperatures trend fairly similar to last year. Portions of the Northeast and South Central could trend warmer than normal for the month as a whole, while much of the Corn Belt trends near-normal. Precipitation is forecast to trend a bit wetter than normal for much of the Corn Belt and Eastern US. Some areas of near to somewhat drier than normal trends are possible in the Central US and West. Monthly trends for July in the Corn Belt could be similar to trends seen in 2017. However, it is important to note that daily and weekly trends could vary and these forecasts represent the trends for the month overall.