LAKEWOOD, Colo. — As of Jan. 1, 2022, USDA NASS reported total sheep and lamb inventory levels at 5.065 million head, down 2.0% or 105,000 head from 2021. This was the largest decline of inventory since 2014, which saw a 2.3% decline, but over the last five years the annual average decline has been less than one percent. The breeding flock also saw a 1.9% decline last year to 3.710 million head, which was partly due to annual mature sheep slaughter of 141,000 head in 2021, a 24.5% or 28,000 head increase over 2020 and the highest level in a decade. This year, weekly mature sheep slaughter through mid-September is tracking nearly 24% below last year’s level and near typical levels, indicating the breeding flock is likely to stabilize.
Lower ewe prices this year have partially slowed the rate of mature sheep slaughter to more typical levels which are expected to be around 120,000 head. The three-market average (CO, TX, SD) good slaughter ewe price has been averaging about $82 per cwt since mid-June, during the same period last year, the average was $100 per cwt. From a salvage value perspective, last year provided an economic opportunity for producers to sell cull ewes at levels that had never been seen based on available price data through 2006. Although ewe prices have moved lower this year, price levels are still well above the five-year average for the mid-June to September per of $73 per cwt.
The LMIC is currently forecasting all sheep and lamb inventory levels as of Jan. 1, 2023, to be down less than 1 percent, which follows typical annual declines that have occurred for the last two decades. This is based on a total breeding flock decline of less than one percent to 3.680 million head and inventory levels of ewes one year and older of about 2.9 million head. The current LMIC forecast is working with a 2023 lamb crop of about 3.1 million head, which leads to a lambing percentage of 106.5%, just below the 2022 level of 106.8% and the five-year average of 107%. The forecast does depend on producers’ ability to rebuild as drought pressures have remained which could constrain available feed and forage supplies.
— Livestock Marketing Information Center