COLLEGE STATION, Texas — Recent rainy weather improved soil moisture conditions for many wheat and cool-season forage producers, but most of Texas remains below normal rainfall, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.
John Nielsen-Gammon, Ph.D., state climatologist in the Texas A&M College of Arts and Sciences Department of Atmospheric Sciences, said parts of the state received beneficial rainfall over the past week and that cooler temperatures will help soils retain the moisture.
“The Thanksgiving weekend was a lucky shot,” he said. “As late as Tuesday, the computer models were saying that the storm could move through quickly and miss us, could stall in an ideal spot, or slide south. It ended up stalling in an ideal spot, producing a broad swath of precipitation across the middle of the state.”
Midland to San Angelo, Corpus Christi, McAllen and northeastern areas of the state received good rains that should provide decent soil moisture for the rest of the year, Nielsen-Gammon said. The largest totals for the week were in southeastern Texas.
Port Arthur received 5.95 inches and Baytown 5.43 inches. Elsewhere in the state, Carthage in northeast Texas recorded 5.06 inches, Santa Anna recorded 4.1 inches, and several stations near Brownsville recorded 3-4 inches.
But the outlook for the rest of the winter is dry, he said. There is around a two-out-of-three chance of below-normal rainfall for December through March, with the worst odds of receiving rainfall toward the southern and western parts of the state.
Temperatures will also be above normal most of the time, but there will be cold air farther north waiting to blow into the state occasionally, he said. The effect of La Niña tends to wear off by April or so, but more importantly, La Niña itself will probably dissipate by then.
“It’s about time; this is the third La Niña winter in a row,” he said. “It’s time to be hopeful that the pendulum will swing in the other direction so that an El Niño might develop over the summer and tilt the odds in favor of a wet winter next time around.”
Rainy weather improves regional conditions
Reagan Noland, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension agronomist, San Angelo, said the recent storm systems delivered good moisture throughout most of the region. Most locations received 2-3 inches, with some catching up to 4 inches of rainfall.
Noland said the moisture will help planted wheat and any cover crops planted by producers in the region.
“Everyone got rain. It was slow and was able to soak in, and the winter crops will certainly benefit from the moisture,” he said. “We are still in a deficit for the year, but we are in much better shape than two months ago.”
Much of the Rolling Plains received 1-2 inches of rain that has improved soil moisture conditions in wheat fields, said Emi Kimura, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension agronomist, Vernon. The rains helped moisture conditions but hindered the region’s cotton and peanut harvests.
Kimura said the moisture should sustain the wheat crop through December but that additional rains will be needed into January and February. Most producers utilize the wheat for grazing and decide in late February whether to continue utilizing fields as forage or taking the crop to grain.
“A lot of producer decisions regarding wheat will come down to weather and grain prices going forward,” she said. “But so far, so good. At least there is some optimism. It was depressing to talk about any crop a few months ago because it was so dry.”
Larry Stein, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension horticulture specialist, Uvalde, said much of the Winter Garden region of Texas received much-needed moisture from multiple precipitation-producing systems over the last 10 days. Recent precipitation started with days of drizzly conditions followed by a good rain.
Much of the region had not received significant moisture since the August rains that dried quickly under triple-digit temperatures and high winds, Stein said. Water tank and pond levels remained a concern, but producer optimism about wheat and winter forages is higher.
Stein said the moisture will help the spectrum of plant life from trees and landscape plants to pastures and crops in the field. Many producers planted wheat and ryegrass before the rainfall and that the moisture could influence future plantings.
“It was as dry as I have ever seen it after that August rain,” he said. “It dried out so quickly and was very dry and hot. It’s no longer powder dry. People talk about getting a million-dollar rain, well this one was probably a billion-dollar rain.”
–Adam Russell
Texas A&M AgriLife Communications
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