EAST GRAND FORKS, Minn. — How many potato acres will be planted in North Dakota is more difficult to project than in most years as several factors figure into making it the tough call.
Coming off a difficult year when 30 percent of the fresh crop was lost to over-land flooding, the fresh potato landscape looks much different this spring. The valley’s largest red potato grower has changed his business model and will greatly reduce acres. Another wash plant has come under new ownership and will be supplied by the new owners. Seed availability has also been mentioned as a limiting factor.
Our own survey indicates fresh acres will be down about 7% in the Red River Valley, but that number could still fluctuate quite a bit between now and planting time.
It is much more difficult to get a handle on chip, frozen and seed acres. The days of non-irrigated acres for frozen processors seems to be coming to an end which could signal fewer processing acres as dryland shifts to higher yielding irrigated acrtes. In another variable, one large frozen processor continues to acquire land to source potatoes produced on their own farms.
Bruce Huffaker publisher of the North American Potato Market News has issued his forecast which estimates North Dakota’s combined potato acres will be down 2,000 acres (2.5%) and Minnesota acres will be up about 1,000 acres or 2.5%.
Forecasting acres is difficult enough, forecasting production is much more difficult. Weather plays a huge factor, especially on non-irrigated land in the Red River Valley. Coming off the largest fresh crop since the 1970’s in 2015, the valley’s fresh growers had their smallest crop in recent years in 2016. The small cut in acres had a little to do with it, but Mother Nature played a huge part.
So even if acres are down in 2017, there is a good chance production, especially in the hard hit fresh sector could top last year. Only time will tell.
— Ted Kreis, NPPGA Communications
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