RALEIGH, N.C. – USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the annual Price Reactions following USDA Crop Reports report March 9, showing commodity price reactions following the Crop Production and Grain Stocks reports.
Since the mid-1980s NASS has tracked market price movement for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton, calculating commodity prices one day after and one week after reports, including the number of times prices increased, remained unchanged, and decreased. For each of those fluctuations, we’ve noted the value of how much it changed. The recent report shows mixed reactions across time.
“There are multiple factors that can contribute to the movement of commodity markets, such as weather, domestic supply and world supply,” said Dee Webb, North Carolina state statistician. “NASS reports are two sources of domestic supply data, and it’s important to see what happens following the reports.”
Corn Prices Day After Crop Production reports, 1985-2017
Price increased: 68 times
Average increase: 7.8 cents/bushel
Price decreased: 78 times
Average decrease: 7.3 cents/bushel
No price change: 18 times
Soybean Prices Day After Crop Production reports, 1985-2017
Price increased: 79 times
Average increase: 15.4 cents/bushel
Price decreased: 81 times
Average decrease: 16 cents/bushel
No price change: 4 times
Wheat Prices Day After Crop Production reports, 1987-2017
Price increased: 74 times
Average increase: 7.9 cents/bushel
Price decreased: 84 times
Average decrease: 7.5 cents/bushel
No price change: 10 times
Are you surprised to read that prices don’t always drop?
“Often we hear farmers say the crop reports negatively impact prices, when in fact, prices go up just about as many times as prices go down,” Webb said.
It can be useful to understand the relative changes over time, and farmers can decide to sell crops or livestock or keep until after reports come out.
“NASS reports are but one of multiple factors that could possibly be influencing price changes,” Webb said. “As an example, weather events within a day or two of forecasts could cause the market to react to the event rather than the actual estimates published in the crop reports.”
To view the full report, visit http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/PRCropReport/PRCropReport-03-09-2018.pdf. For more information about North Carolina surveys and reports, call the NASS North Carolina Field Office at (800) 856-4394, or visithttps://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/North_Carolina/index.php
–Dee Webb, NASS