While US corn planting has caught up to the 5-year average and last year’s pace according to the USDA earlier this week, above normal rainfall this month for portions of the Corn Belt have led to soggy fields, the need for replanting, and growing concerns about crop diseases. Last week, the Central US received above normal rainfall with widespread amounts of 2-3” and more localized areas receiving upwards of 5” for the week. Nebraska and Kansas received the highest totals, with Iowa and Missouri not far behind. For the Corn Belt as a whole, May 14-20 this year trended the wettest in 26+ Years. While conditions finally took a turn for the drier in the Western Corn Belt this week, they also took a turn for the colder. For the week, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and northern Missouri are expected to trend 5-10F colder than normal, while the remainder of the Central US trends 1-5F colder than normal. Drier than normal conditions for the week will help water-logged fields to dry out and allow farmers to assess how much replanting may need to be done. Next week, above normal rainfall is back in the picture for areas from Kansas and Missouri through southern Indiana and most points south. Northern Corn Belt locations will enjoy another week of near to below average rainfall. Temperatures for the week are expected to be near normal as well.
Looking ahead to trends for June, Corn Belt temperatures are expected to be similar to last year and a couple degrees above normal. Precipitation is projected to trend slightly wetter than June 2016, but still slightly below average for the month as a whole. If we break the region down a bit, the Western Corn Belt could see temperatures slightly cooler than last year but still above normal, while the Eastern Corn Belt could trend a bit warmer than last year and normal. While overall precipitation is expected to be wetter than last year, there will still be parts of the region that trend drier than normal.
Meteorological summer begins June 1st and astronomical summer begins June 21st, but for many, this weekend marks the “unofficial” start of summer. Temperatures along both the East and West Coasts are expected to trend above normal for this long Memorial Day weekend, while the Central US trends generally 1-5F colder than normal. While the Southeast is expected to trend on the dry side this weekend, outdoor events from central Texas up through New York state could get rained on this year, especially on Sunday or Monday. For much of this portion of the country, Saturday is currently projected to be the driest and thus most favorable for outdoor events.
At the start of the month, Brazilian farmers were still very slow to sell their soybeans, selling only about half of the crop. Last year, about 65% had been sold by the start of May. However, farmers may finally have a bit of incentive to sell their soybeans. Brazilian currency weakened recently which would put more money in farmers’ pockets if they were to sell. In Brazil, soybeans are priced in USD but are paid in local currency to farmers. With a weaker Brazilian real, even with lower soybean prices, farmers are expected to accelerate their sales. Early planted safrinha corn could see a start to harvest soon as weather this season has been mostly favorable for the crop. Some wetter conditions for central and southern Brazil can be expected this week, something welcomed by several regions that have been dealing with dry conditions in recent weeks. Next week, many will trend drier than normal which would favor early harvest efforts. Unlike last year, when heat and dryness damaged the crop during pollination, this year’s safrinha corn crop benefitted from generally favorable conditions and is still expected to produce a record crop.
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