Moisture from the Pacific has been streaming in across northern and central California, Nevada, and parts of Oregon over the past week bringing extraordinary amounts of precipitation to the region. Snowfall has been measured by the feet in the higher elevations with over 10’ of snow since last week on some of the ski resorts in the Sierra Nevada. The high snowpack in the Sierras will be beneficial in the months ahead for California’s agriculture as snowmelt helps to recharge their reservoirs. Rainfall has been tremendous as well with many areas recording over a foot of rain since last week and some places even getting close to the 2’ mark. While the precipitation is needed to end a multi-year drought in California, all of it coming at one time has caused problems including flooding, mudslides, avalanches, and impassable roads. Major improvements in the drought have been reported in the past week in California, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. Periods of rain moved across southern California at times, but the intensity of the rain wasn’t even close to the intensity of the rainfall in northern and central California. Thus, drought conditions in the southern parts of the state have seen little improvement.
California will see a break in the precipitation in the upcoming weekend (1/13-1/15) with dry conditions, but by the middle of next week we may be looking at another large surge of moisture moving onshore. Although it’s too early to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest precipitation will fall, current indications are that another hefty dump of precipitation is possible in northern California and possibly into central California as well. Currently, the North Sierra is seeing the wettest water year (starts October 1st) since 1982-1983 which was the wettest year ever.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Plains have started off 2017 with below normal precipitation. In Oklahoma where 2017 is off to the 5th driest start in 26+ years, there are reports from farmers and ranchers in the northwestern part of the state that ground conditions are bad with farm ponds running dry, and pastures and winter wheat crops being decimated. The good news is that precipitation is in the forecast for the upcoming weekend (1/13-1/15), the bad news is there could be heavy icing from Oklahoma to Illinois. Ice accumulations, up to 1’’ in some areas, will cause power outages and travel-related issues.
Looking south of the Equator where summer is in full swing, harvesting of Brazil’s early maturing soybeans has started in Mato Grosso with yields, so far, mostly favorable. The best yields recorded so far have been 47-48 bu/ac while others have been seeing 35-44 bu/ac. Harvest activity is expected to increase in the next few weeks as more fields reach maturity. However, as with any year, soybean rust is currently a concern. Mato Grosso already has 5 confirmed cases and if some of the early maturing soybeans have not been treat, then their harvest could spread rust spores to the later maturing soybeans and impact their yields. Rust spores are very light and can travel easily with just a little bit of wind. Conditions have been drier than normal this week in Mato Grosso which is beneficial for harvest efforts.
Brazil full-season corn has had a generally favorable season this year, although dryness in Rio Grande do Sul and northeastern Brazil will knock production down from earlier expectations. Safrinha corn in Mato Grosso is expected to be planted 2-3 weeks earlier than last year due to the earlier soybean harvest. Last year 40% of the crop was planted after the passing of the ideal planting window of February 20th.
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