Another week of heavy precipitation in California last week, with up to a foot of rain in some areas, has caused a dramatic reduction in drought conditions across the state. All of the D4 intensity drought (the most severe on the USDA’s drought scale) has been eradicated. A year ago, 40% of the state of California was considered to be in a D4 intensity drought. While drought conditions still remain across most of the southern half of California, the intensity of the drought has been reduced by recent heavy precipitation. Approximately 61% of the state continues to be considered in drought conditions, compared to 100% a year ago and 91% just 3 months ago. For agriculture this is a double-edged sword as some growers of cool season vegetables are having a tough time harvesting crops or replanting damaged crops, however, the heavy rain has revitalized aquifers in areas that have been suffering under a 5-year long drought. In the months ahead flooding will continue to be an issue as record high snow pack in the mountains start to melt bringing a deluge of water to the valleys below. The current year-to-date water year, which began October 1st, 2016, is the wettest in 25+ years for California as a whole. For the water year as a whole, which ends on September 30th, 2017, this is already the 5th wettest water year in 25+ years for California and we’re only 4 months into the current water year.
The rain and snow have stopped for now in the West as they finally get a chance to dry out for about a week, but rain and snow return to the forecast during the first few days of February. Meanwhile, a ‘January Thaw’ that brought abnormally mild temperatures over the past week or so is coming to an end as cold, Arctic air returns. As cold air rushes in, Lake Effect snow will materialize bringing localized totals of over a foot of snow to areas downwind of the Great Lakes during the last weekend of January.
Meanwhile, Summer is in full swing in Brazil where the soybean harvest continues to advance in Mato Grosso, ahead of the normal pace. Safrinha corn planting is also getting underway. Estimated safrinha corn production for Mato Grosso this year is 25 million tons. If realized, this would be much greater than last year when hot and dry conditions wreaked havoc on the crop.
In Argentina, core growing regions in the central part of the country have been dealing with heavy rains and flooded fields. It is unlikely that fields will be dry enough to allow for re-planting. While central Argentina deals with too much rain, southern Argentina farmers are hoping rains start to pick up to help alleviate their ongoing drought conditions. Soybeans in southern Buenos Aires have had insufficient moisture to ensure proper germination and establishment. As a result, planting of the crop in this part of the state has essentially been halted. Rainfall amounts over the next 2 weeks in this region are expected to be below normal, so conditions will likely continue to be unfavorable in the near-term. Temperatures over the next week are expected to be well above normal for much of Argentina as well, which will only exacerbate the existing dry conditions in these regions.
Chile is also battling hot and dry conditions which have sparked numerous wildfires just south of Santiago. The fires have torched hundreds of thousands of hectares of land, including rich forestry lands and farmlands. Through January 25th, the month of January is trending the hottest in 26+ years for Santiago and this may well end up being the hottest January on record for the city and surrounding regions. Precipitation has been hard to come by with no measurable precipitation in Santiago thus far in January, a typically dry month for this area. As we head into the first week of February, there is a slight chance of showers near Santiago, but nothing substantial.
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