MAITLAND, Fla. — All oranges 74.0 million boxes: The 2019-2020 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 74.0 million boxes, unchanged rom the October forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 3 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 32.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 42.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom.
Non-Valencia Oranges 32.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is unchanged from the October forecast at 32.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above average and is projected to be above average at harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 800 thousand boxes, and is 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. Final Navel size is below average and droppage is above average.
Valencia Oranges 42.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged from the previous forecast at 42.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest.
All Grapefruit 4.90 Million Boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is up 7 percent from the October forecast and is now 4.90 million boxes. If realized, this forecast will be 9 percent more than last season’s final production. The red grapefruit forecast is 4.10 million boxes. Fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be slightly above average and droppage is projected to be above average. The white grapefruit forecast is 800,000 boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is above average; projected droppage is above average.
Tangerines and Tangelos 1.05 Million Boxes
The forecast for tangerine and tangelos is unchanged from the previous forecast at 1.05 million boxes, 6 percent more than last season’s utilization of 990 thousand boxes. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 Florida production forecasts, the “Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year’s forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
The “Root Mean Square Error” for the December 1 Florida all orange production forecast is 7.8 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production seasons (three hurricane seasons), the “Root Mean Square Error” is 7.5 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current all orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 7.8 percent, or 7.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 13.4 percent, or 13.1 percent excluding abnormal seasons.
Changes between the December 1 Florida all orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 7.94 million boxes (7.37 million, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 0.95 million boxes to 19.0 million boxes including abnormal seasons, (1.00 to 19.0 million boxes excluding abnormal seasons). The December 1 forecast for all oranges has been below the final estimate 4 times, above 16 times, (below 4 times, above 13 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the December 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Regular bloom fruit samples (323 orange and 94 grapefruit) were collected from groves on established routes in Florida’s five major citrus producing areas on November 21-22, 2019 and tested by the Florida Agricultural Statistics Service (FASS) on November 25-27, 2019. Unadjusted Maturity Tests – Florida: 2018-2019 and 2019-2020
Averages of regular bloom fruit from sample groves. Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to juice processing plant test results. Samples were run through an FMC 091B machine using pneumatic pressure. This machine utilizes a 0.025 short strainer and a 1.00 inch orifice tube for the 3 inch cup and a 1.25 inch orifice tube for the 4 inch and 5 inch cups]