Too much rain or not enough, Mother Nature isn’t playing nice for the grain and bean crops causing a recent rise in prices. Overnight (July 26-27th) very heavy rain in parts of the Midwest resulted in major flooding. Almost 7’’ of rain fell overnight near Kansas City, MO with several inches across much of the rest of Missouri and into parts of central and southern Illinois. Flooding could negatively impact the grain and bean crops in this area if fields remain underwater for a prolonged period of time, but the rain will help to ease dry conditions across Missouri and Illinois. Luckily, once today’s (July 27th) area of rain moves out of the Midwest there will be several days of drier weather with the threat of showers and thunderstorms returning around the middle part of next week. Temperatures will be on the favorable side across much of the central and eastern Corn Belt over the next 7 days with no extreme heat expected. In fact, temperatures should be generally below normal over the next week from near Iowa to the East Coast.
Unfortunately, places that really need rain, like southern and western Iowa, missed out on any significant rain over the past week, and the week ahead does not look very promising in terms of rainfall; drought conditions will likely expand across Iowa in the next week. Drought expanded over the 7 day period from July 19th to the 25th across Montana (49% of state in drought), South Dakota (80% in drought), Nebraska (42% in drought), and Iowa (35% in drought). North Dakota drought intensity increased very slightly from last week thanks to some heavier rain earlier in the week with increasing drought conditions primarily in the northern part of the state, while southern parts of the state were nearly unchanged thanks to heavier rain earlier in the week. Approximately 79% of the state is experiencing drought. As we approach the end of July, it looks as though monthly rainfall totals will rank as the driest in at least 26 years for Montana and North Dakota, and the 5th– 6th driest in 26+ years for Iowa and Nebraska.
After a brief break in the extreme heat across the High Plains, temperatures are forecast to rise again over the next week which could put additional stress on crops in this area. July 2017 looks like it will end up being the 2nd hottest July in 26+ years for Montana, 4th hottest for North Dakota, 6th hottest for Nebraska and South Dakota. Excessive heat briefly moves into the Mississippi Delta region today (July 27th) before retreating with cooler than normal temperatures arriving over the weekend and continuing into early next week.
Farther east, July has been downright soggy for the Mid-Atlantic where rainfall totals for the month overall will end up being near 10’’ from northern Virginia to eastern Pennsylvania. Unfortunately, July is not over yet and this upcoming weekend is looking rather stormy for the region. An unseasonably strong wave of low pressure is forecast to move up along a stalled frontal boundary draped across the Maryland border on Friday (July 27th). The low pressure system will pull abundant moisture up along the front from the south with very heavy rain possible Friday and Friday night, and possibly into part of Saturday. Widespread rainfall totals on the order of 1-3’’ are possible throughSaturday evening with locally higher amounts likely. July will end up being one of the wettest of the past 26 years for the Mid-Atlantic. All the wet weather and unusually cloudy conditions for mid-summer has likely resulted in increased instances of fungal diseases among crops in the region, and this weekend’s downpours will do little to help. However, once we move past this weekend, there will be at least a couple of days of dry, sunny, and pleasant temperatures which should help to dry things out a little. This Summer overall is on track to be wetter than normal for the East.
Shifting gears to the tropics, the Atlantic continues to be relatively quiet with just a disorganized area of showers and storms extending from the Cabo Verde Islands and southwestward across the Atlantic. There is a slim chance of development of this system over the next 5 days. Conditions across the Atlantic should become more favorable for storm development towards the first weekend of August and into the first full week of the month. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific continues to fire off storm after storm with Hurricane Hilary and Tropical Storm Irwin expected to interact with each other and merge over the next several days, but the storms pose no immediate threat to land.
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