LAKEWOOD, Colo. — Female beef cow slaughter is approaching 750,000 head more than a year ago this week. Total heifer kill through weekending 10/1/2022 was 364,000 head over last year, while beef cow slaughter was 336,000 head over last year. Last year, fourth quarter female beef animal slaughter outpaced 2020 by 154,000 head. Given the pace of current slaughter, a reasonable estimate would conclude U.S. female slaughter will be over 800,000 head by the end of the year.
Using a simple regression analysis of data back to 1987 that would imply a Jan. 1 beef cow herd number of down 4.8%, greater than the largest decline seen in the 2011-2015 time period. The difference has been the larger number of heifers moving through slaughter channels. It would suggest an unprecedented proportion of female slaughter in the last several decades relative to herd inventory. The proportion is fairly off trend line from what is typically seen based on the LMIC regression analysis.
However, to put this year back to normal relationships, several things would need to happen. The first is female slaughter in the fourth quarter would need to register below a year ago to the point of generating a net negative relative to last year. The highest proportion of female and cow slaughter (x-axis) relative to the previous Jan. 1 inventory prior to 2022 was 43.7%. Even if 4th quarter was even with a year ago, 2022’s proportion would be 46.8% of the Jan. 1, 2022, beef cow herd.
The second metric LMIC looks at is the relative decline in the cow herd compared to the number of females slaughtered. The 2022 data point is assuming female slaughter in the fourth quarter is 50,000 head under last year and is well below trend. To put this forecast more in line with historical relationships the beef cow number on Jan. 1 would only decline 2.8%. These are certainly unique times, and beef cow and heifer slaughter analysis may be less helpful than in history due to the already very high proportion female slaughter represents of Jan. 1, 2022, beef cow herd data.
— Livestock Marketing Information Center