After an unseasonably warm February, winter had its revenge in mid-March which was the 2nd coldest in 26+ years for the Southeast. Unfortunately, this meant that freezing temperatures made it as far south as northern Florida and the cold was sustained bringing several nights in a row of below freezing temperatures. The damage has begun to be assessed and preliminary estimates released by the South Carolina Department of Agriculture indicate that 85% of that state’s peach crop is gone. Meanwhile, the Georgia Agriculture Commissioner estimates that 80% of Georgia’s blueberry crop is gone. Other fruit crops in the Southeast, such as apples and strawberries, also reported damage from the recent freeze.
The sustained, very cold weather has since moved on and while temperatures may flirt with the freezing mark still in the weeks ahead in the Mid-South we don’t expect anything as severe or as long-lasting as last week’s cold outbreak. However, we turn our attention to an active weather pattern that is developing for this spring which includes one of the most active severe weather seasons in at least 5 years. Over the next week there will be several days where severe thunderstorms will threaten parts of the central and southern states. So far this season, reports of tornadoes are well above the season-to-date average. This means that there will be an increased risk for hail and high wind damage for crops this season, as well as damage from flash floods.
Drought conditions have expanded in the central Plains, although a wet final week of March should help to keep drought from spreading too much over the next week. This is forecast to be the 5th wettest final week of March in 26+ years for the Corn Belt. A lack of a decent snow pack in the North Central U.S. this year will be a headwind for soil moisture as we move into the planting season. Luckily, drought has yet to seep very far into the Corn Belt with only far southern portions of the region seeing any form of drought. April 2017 is forecast to bring above normal precipitation to the region which should help to replenish soil moisture but could be troublesome at times as muddy fields may slow down planting progression.
The wetter than normal conditions in the West continue through the end of Mach which will be the 5th wettest in 26+ years for the region. From November 2016 to February 2017, precipitation was the 3rd most in 26+ years for the Southwest as incredible amounts of rain and mountain snow fell across the region. The precipitation has been both a blessing and a curse as we’ve essentially ended the 5-year drought and recharged aquifers. At the same time, however, there has been flooding and the scare at the Oroville Dam. Flooding will continue to be a threat as we move into the warmer months as the immense snow pack in the mountains starts to melt and drains into the valleys below. As we move through April and closer to the typical dry season, the frequency and intensity of storm systems in the West should start to die down.
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