URBANA, Ill. — Last week’s Grain Stocks report should reduce the ending stocks for both corn and soybeans this month. Todd Gleason has more on how that might play out.
USDA’s quarterly grain stocks estimate suggests there are fewer bushels of corn and soybeans leftover from last year than have been reported so far. University of Illinois Commodity Grain Markets Specialist Todd Hubbs says corn is off by 56 million bushels and soybeans are down 44 million.
Hubbs: I’d say one thing out of the stocks report is the idea that corn and soybean consumption is starting to get stronger as we move through the year. This is especially the case in some areas we didn’t see before like feed. For the soybean ending stocks, USDA adjusted 2016 production. This isn’t a shocker, but it did change the balance sheet.
Having said that, Hubbs admits the 2016/17 projected carryouts for corn and soybeans remain very large. It’s possible to roll forward the September grain stocks report to forward figure the October USDA Supply & Demand table… or at least some of the adjustment. When you do that it shows corn carry out at 2.295 billion bushels and soybean ending stocks at 301 million. It is a matter then, says, Hubbs, of laying off the heavy supply-side against growing consumption – which for the moment is hampered by low river water levels that have been causing transportation problems to the Gulf of Mexico.
Hubbs: The strong demand, the strong consumption, that we’ve been seeing is a good sign as we move through the next marketing year if we can keep it up. Right now we are suffering under these supply and transportation issues.
It’s not to say a bullish market is around the corner, but that demand should provide a series of marketing opportunities over the coming months.URBANA, Ill. — Hear from University of Illinois Commodity Markets Specialist Todd Hubbs in the following podcast. He talked with Todd Gleason after the closes Monday.
—Todd Hubbs, Commodity Grain Markets – University of Illinois
Todd Gleason, Farm Broadcaster
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