WASHINGTON — Soybean harvest continues across Brazil, but has been slowed somewhat by wetter than normal weather recently. While early harvest pace was about the same as the 5-year average, the country-wide harvest has now dropped below the 5-year average pace. As expected from the delayed planting earlier in the season, harvest is still trailing last year’s harvest pace as well. Brazilian soybeans are about 17% harvested, down from 26% last year and 19% average. State-by-state harvests are vastly different, with Mato Grosso leading the way with 44.9% of their crop harvested. The western and mid-northern portions of the state are the furthest advanced, 68% and 64%, respectively, while the northeastern portion is only 15% complete. As discussed a couple weeks ago, February has been, and is expected to continue to be wetter than normal for the state. While overall harvest is still generally in line with the state’s 5-year average, the beans that are currently being harvested have a fairly high moisture content. Farmers will either need to dry the beans on farms or, if they do not have the room, take the crop to grain elevators and accept a lower price for soybeans with higher moisture content.
The state of Parana is the least advanced of the main-producing states. Harvest there is only about 5% complete, down from last year’s 20% and a 5-year average of 23%. By mid-month, harvest had just started getting underway, with 1% of the crop harvested. A later than normal and narrower window of planting this season has the crop maturing later and in a more compact timeframe. This last week of February is forecast to be much drier than normal, with only some spotty showers possible. Harvest should be able to make some good progress as a result. A drier end to the month will also benefit soybean harvest in the northern part of Rio Grande do Sul. Conditions in this part of the state have been mostly favorable, in stark contrast to the very dry weather in southern Rio Grande do Sul. The good news for the state is that about 80% of the state’s soybeans are grown in the northern region.
While Brazil’s soybean crop is still expected to be generally favorable, albeit less than last year’s record-breaking crop, the same cannot be said for Argentina’s soybean crop. Argentinian soybeans during February are typically beginning to set and fill pods, with harvest not getting into full swing until sometime in April. As of mid-month, only about 26% of the country’s crop is setting pods, while 20% is filling pods. 25% of the crop is still in vegetative development, while the remaining 29% are flowing. Much of the season has trended drier than normal for much of Argentina’s main growing regions. As a result, more than half of the crop is rated as being in poor to very poor condition. Through the remainder of February, northern and western Argentina are forecast to receive beneficial rainfall, although eastern Argentina remains mostly dry. During the first 7 days of March, however, rains could spread into portions of eastern Argentina. Although it would not be enough to overcome the existing dryness, any amount of rainfall will be welcomed at this point. Early March rains could also be beneficial for the crops in Paraguay, although Uruguay looks to miss out on the moisture.
–WeatherTrends360