Hotter weather across the Corn Belt over the past 2 weeks helped corn maturity to jump 17% during the week-ending October 1st compared to the prior week. However, total corn maturity of the 18 major corn-producing states (68%) is still lagging behind the 5 year average which is 78% and well below the 84% maturation at this time last year. Pressure mounts by the day for corn to reach maturation as we move closer to the average first frost dates of the year. In fact, a punch of cold air next week could very well bring frost to parts of the northern Corn Belt.
As more corn matures, we look for drier weather to help speed along the harvest process. Over the past 7 days, heavy rain at times pressed across portions of New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle and up through northwestern Kansas, a large part of Nebraska, and northeastward to northern Minnesota. The rain will have posed some challenges for harvest activities. Except for Texas, most of the states in the aforementioned area lag behind the 5-year corn harvest rate for this time of year. Drier weather across the eastern Corn Belt over the past 7 days helped to accelerate harvest. In Kentucky, total corn harvested by the week-ending October 1st had soared 20% over the previous week, albeit the state is still about 4% below average harvest for this time of year.
Looking ahead, heavy rain is expected in the central Plains and western and central portions of the Corn Belt which should slow down harvest activities. There will be a break in the wet weather arriving late in the weekend for this area, but precipitation returns to the forecast by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, the eastern Corn Belt, which has seen some of the driest conditions in 26 years for the back half of September and first week of October, will finally see the return of wetter conditions in the next 7 days. Wetter weather will slow down the harvest, although above normal temperatures during this time frame should help to speed along corn maturity.
We had a brief break from tropical concerns for about a whole week, but our attention once again turns to the tropics as a new tropical system has formed over the past 2 days. Tropical Storm Nate was named in the western Caribbean Sea this morning (10/05/17) and is forecast to bring very heavy rain to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras over the next 24 hours. Thereafter, Nate will move north-northwestward, possibly brushing the Yucatan Peninsula, before emerging in the Gulf of Mexico this upcoming weekend. Intensity and track forecasts of the storm are low confidence at this point, but we will likely be dealing with at least a tropical storm and possibly a hurricane as Nate heads towards the U.S. Where exactly Nate moves inland is unsure, but interests along the central and eastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor this storm. Nate would bring the threat of flooding to portions of the South early next week. The remnants of Nate are forecast to bring increased moisture up into the Mid-Atlantic and possibly even the eastern Corn Belt where rain has been hard to come by over the past several weeks.
In addition to Nate, there is an area of low pressure located between the Florida Keys and Cuba that is producing heavier showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula. Heavy rainfall over areas recently impacted by Hurricane Irma could cause some isolated flooding across the Florida Peninsula.
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