August is upon us, but for much of the Central US, temperatures through at least the first half of the month are forecast to trend below normal. Weekly average temperatures over the next 7 days (8/3 – 8/9) covering a widespread area from the Dakotas to Texas and eastward will trend at least 1-5F cooler than normal, with much of the US Corn Belt trending even cooler, with temperatures as much as 10F below normal. Over the weekend, some areas could even experience daily average temperatures as much as 15F below normal. Cooler trends look to stick around through much of the 8-14 day forecast period, but warmer than normal temperatures could start to creep back into the Dakotas and Nebraska by mid-month. Cooler trends over the next 7 days will be matched with varying precipitation trends. Near to above normal rainfall is forecast for eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Iowa, the Eastern Corn Belt, and the Northeast while rainfall will trend drier than normal across North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, central and southern Iowa, and Missouri. In the 8-14 day forecast period, much of the Corn Belt will trend drier than normal with little to no rainfall for the week.
Drought continues to plague the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Iowa. While changes from last week were minimal across much of the area there was no improvement of conditions. In North Dakota, 7.6% is in exceptional drought, 36.5% in extreme drought, 18.4% in severe drought, 19.3% in moderate drought, 15.1% with abnormal dryness, and only 3.1% with no drought conditions – a small pocket in the eastern part of the state. In South Dakota, 13.2% is in extreme drought, 40% in severe drought, 29.3% in moderate drought, 14.7% with abnormal dryness, and only 2.8% with no drought conditions – also a small pocket in the eastern part of the state. In Nebraska, 6.4% is in severe drought, 35.5% in moderate drought, 43.8% with abnormal dryness, and 14.3% with no drought conditions. Drought conditions expanded somewhat in southern Iowa over the past week, with 7.1% of the state now categorized as being in severe drought, up from 1.7% the previous week. Areas in a band from the northwestern to the southeastern part of the state remain in moderate drought. While the northern part of the state should receive some showers over the next several days, dryness could expand in the south where minimal rainfall is expected.
As the Central and Eastern US trend cooler over the next couple weeks, the same cannot be said for the Northwest. Temperatures in the region are currently trending well above normal with highs in the 90s and nearing 100 for some. This heat is 10-15F above normal for the region with several areas seeing highs >15F above normal. Excessive heat warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service through Friday (8/4) across northern California and western Washington/Oregon. Temperatures will remain well above normal through next week with minimal rainfall. This could exacerbate the abnormal dryness currently covering parts of OR/WA.
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