Colder North, warmer South into spring

The blockbuster wet winter in northern and central California continues this week with more heavy valley rain and mountain snow. The storm this week is warmer than the recent storms that have moved through the area so snowmelt is combining with heavy rain to cause flash flooding across California and into the interior Northwest. The recharged aquifers and heavy snow pack will ease watering concerns in the months ahead for an area that has been in a 5 year long drought.

The first significant snow of the season has finally arrived for eastern parts of the Northeast with widespread 4-8’’ of snow and over a foot of snow closer in coastal New England falling Thursday, February 9^th. The snow may cause some transport disruption in the short term but things should be back to normal within the next day or so. While winter encompasses the Northeast, the southern Plains have been feeling more summer-like recently with record highs in the mid to upper 80s near Houston, TX and highs in the mid 70s across North Texas in the wheat-growing regions. The next few days will feature a continuation of above normal temperatures in the southern Plains but then much colder weather arrives next week along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The long-term forecast favors above normal-warmth in the South while the North is cooler than normal as we head into the corn planting season. Below normal temperatures across a large part of the Corn Belt may delay germination and any early-planted corn could be at risk of damage due to a late season frose/freeze.

Meanwhile, in South America where it actually is summer, wetter conditions forecast for northern Argentina and Brazil will hinder soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting. As of last week, about 10% of the state’s safrinha corn crop had been planted, +4.8% ahead of last year but -6% behind the expected pace. Many acres of safrinha cannot be planted in Mato Grosso until the soybeans have been harvested. The ideal planting window in the state closes around February 20^th but planting can extend until mid-March. However, the later the crop is planted, the higher the risk of the crop running out of moisture during critical development phases. The good news is that the latter half of February is forecast to trend near to below normal for precipitation which will aid in planting efforts. As we look ahead to March, conditions are forecast to take a turn for the wetter.

While this season for safrinha corn won’t be without its weather risks, the forecast is not calling for a repeat of last year. Last year, high heat and minimal rainfall severely impacted the safrinha crop during pollination which decimated yields, overall production, and sent domestic prices skyrocketing as Brazil entered a corn shortage. While this season could see pockets of drier weather, temperatures are not expected to be as extreme as they were last year. Conab’s most recent update on expected corn and soybean yields came in a bit more than expected. Grain yield growth is expected to be 17.4% according to Conab’s projections.

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