MAITLAND, Fla. — The 2019-2020 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 71.0 million boxes. If realized, this will be down 1 percent from last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 30.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 41.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom.
Non-Valencia Oranges 30.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 30.0 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted February 25-26, 2020, showed 98 percent of the early-midseason rows are harvested. Estimated utilization for non-Valencia oranges to March 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 29.5 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, remains at 800,000 boxes.
Valencia Oranges 41.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged from the previous forecast at 41.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest, requiring 246 pieces to fill a 90 pound box. Droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest. Harvest of Valencia oranges is still in the early stages.
All Grapefruit 5.40 Million Boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 500,000 boxes to 5.40 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast at 900,000 boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is lowered 500,000 boxes to 4.50 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted February 25-26, 2020, indicated 69 percent of the red grapefruit rows and 71 percent of the white grapefruit rows are harvested. Estimated utilization for white grapefruit to March 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 653,000 boxes and for red grapefruit is 3.06 million boxes.
Tangerines and Tangelos 1.05 Million Boxes
The forecast for tangerine and tangelos is unchanged from the February forecast at 1.05 million boxes. Utilization to March 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 924,000 boxes. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.
Reliability
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 Florida production forecasts, the “Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this
year’s forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
The “Root Mean Square Error” for the March 1 Florida all orange production forecast is 4.6 percent. If you exclude the three abnormal production seasons (three hurricane seasons), the “Root Mean Square Error” is 4.8 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current all orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.6 percent, including abnormal seasons or 4.8 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 7.9 percent including abnormal seasons, or 8.4 percent excluding abnormal seasons.
Changes between the March 1 Florida all orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 3.98 million boxes (4.12 million, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 0.05 million boxes to 10.7 million boxes including abnormal seasons, (0.30 to 10.7 million boxes excluding abnormal seasons). The March 1 forecast for all oranges has been below the final estimate 10 times, above 10 times, (below 9 times, above 8 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
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–USDA, NASS