LAKEWOOD, Colo. — The change in total cattle reported on Jan. 1, 2023, from the same date last year, confirmed a 2.8 million head decline. This is the most aggressive single year decline since 1989. One key difference is that in 1989 the largest drop occurred in animals under 500 pounds that year, down 1.5 million head of the 2.882 drop in total cattle inventory that year. This year, over a million cows were lost, predominantly in the beef breeding herd.
January 2023 numbers were down 3.6% to 38.320 million head in total cows. Beef cows totaled the lowest point since the 1960s. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska lost about 100 thousand head or more. Dairy cows increased slightly by about 25 thousand head.
Beef heifers held for replacement, down 5.8% from last year, implying expanding the beef cow herd isn’t practical from a drought or profitability standpoint. Heifers held for beef replacement were the lowest since 2011. Heifers held for beef cow replacements saw declines of 15% or more in Delaware, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Ohio. Seven states had declines between 10%-15%.
The 2022 calf crop was listed as 2% below a year ago. Ten states saw losses of greater than 5% and 26 states had losses of more than 2%. Total feeder cattle supplies were confirmed as 2.8% below a year ago, while all cattle on feed was down 3.7%. Cattle grazing on small grains were down 5%.
A few small surprises in the report were cattle grazing on small grains were expected to see a much larger decline than 5% and be closer to only 1.5 million rather than the 1.610 reported. This could indicate improvement in the cattle outside of feedlots, but those numbers saw fairly significant declines of about three-quarters of a million head. It appears we significantly robbed the countryside of heifers specifically, as those listed on feed were over 40% of the total. Low retention and a much smaller other heifer number represent the significant undercutting that has happened to the beef cattle herd. It will take a significant amount of time to rebuild to normal cull rates and gain back the time lost in genetic improvement by culling heifers. There is very likely to be significant opportunities in the bred heifer markets, but 2023 might be a touch early to see the most benefits of that game plan.
— Livestock Marketing Information Center