Corn harvest in the US advanced 16% from the previous week, but still trails the 5-year average by 18% and last year’s pace by 19%, as of October 29th. While each state made harvest progress since last week, several states are almost 50% behind their average harvest pace. Colorado is only 31% harvested, trailing average by -49%, Minnesota is 38% harvested, trailing average by -48%, South Dakota is 35% harvested and -47% behind average, and Wisconsin is 25% harvested, -50% behind average harvest pace. Despite some snow late last week, Minnesota’s harvest advanced almost 24 points from the previous week. Elsewhere in the heart of the Corn Belt, current harvest (vs 5-year average) is as follows: Iowa 44% (-26%), Illinois 73% (-11%), Indiana 59% (-12%), Ohio 48% (-13%), Nebraska 45% (-22%), North Dakota 37% (-21%), and Michigan 44% (+1%).
Over the next 7 days, snow is back in the forecast for the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. While these areas could see some snow today (11/02), a few inches of accumulation is possible this coming weekend as well. The more southern portions of these states, with the exception of North Dakota, could miss out on the snowfall. As snow falls in the far North Central, conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt are expected to trend rather wet over the next 7 days with Indiana, Ohio, and eastward receiving 1-3” of precipitation through mid-week next week. Further west in the Corn Belt, states like Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Kansas are forecast to trend drier than normal which should aid harvest progress.
The far North Central is expected to continue to trend colder than normal over the next 7 days, however over the weekend, warmer than normal trends will spread as far northward as Nebraska and Iowa. Many from Kansas to Ohio could see temperatures >+15F above normal at some point this weekend. However, these warmer trends won’t stick around long. By Monday, colder trends return to the western and central Corn Belt, spreading to the eastern Corn Belt the next day. While these parts see a temperature flip-flop, the Dakotas and Minnesota will trend much colder than normal. Most days are expected to be at least 5-10F colder than normal, with several days early next week <-15F below normal. By mid-week, those much colder trends are expected to extend down through much of the Central US.
In Brazil, soybean planting continues to be slow. For the country as a whole, about 31% of the crop has been planted thus far. Average for this time of year is 34.5% and last year at this time was 40% complete. Dry conditions in central Brazil and wet conditions in southern Brazil have hindered planting progress this season. Main producing state Mato Grosso is approximately 44% planted, with the western part of the state seeing the most progress (79% planted). Continued dry conditions in the northeastern part of the state have progress at a near standstill and only 5% of the crop planted, but over the next 7 days, rains are expected to fall across central Brazil, helping to improve current conditions somewhat. Rainfall will be most beneficial in the state of Goias, the 4th largest soybean producing state in Brazil. Planting in the state is only 6% complete. Last year by this time, 42% had been planted and average is 28%. Despite a slow start to the season, it does not spell disaster for the soybean crop in Brazil. Weather conditions during December, January, and February, the time when the crop is setting and filling pods, will help make or break this crop. The current outlook for December has central Brazil trending near to slightly wetter than normal, while January and February trend slightly wetter than normal as well. Southern Brazil could see some drier-than-normal trends in February. Even if the weather cooperates, however, total soybean production this year is likely to be down from last year’s record setting crop that benefitted from fast planting and nearly ideal weather conditions all season.
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