October 2017 is off to the 3rd warmest start for the US Corn Belt in 26+ years, with many trending +5-10F warmer than normal so far. While above normal temperatures are expected to continue, a very brief cool-down is in the forecast. Starting this weekend for the western Corn Belt and slowly expanding through Monday into the eastern Corn Belt, temperatures will cool off and trend slightly below normal. Although this may give a taste of fall, above normal temperatures move back into the Corn Belt by mid-week next week. Portions of the Corn Belt could see a few days trending +10-15F above normal. With this short-lived cool down on the way, those in the northern portions of the Corn Belt, and even into parts of northern Iowa should keep an eye on the potential for lows dropping close to freezing.
The above normal temperatures so far this month have assisted in pushing the corn crop to maturity. While pace (82%) remains slower than the 5-year average (87%) and last year (92%), corn reaching maturity is now only 5% behind the 5-year average. The previous week, the crop was 10% behind the 5-year average. Harvest progress, however, has fallen further behind the 5-year average. Through October 8th, only 22% of the crop had been harvested, trailing the 5-year average pace of 37% and last year’s pace of 33%. In the week prior, 17% of the crop had been harvested, compared to the 5-year average of 26% and last year’s 23%. That marks only a 5% increase in corn harvested and increases the gap between this year and the 5-year average from 9% to 15%.
Iowa’s harvest is currently only 8% complete, trailing the 5-year average of 28%. Month-to-date rainfall in the state trended the wettest in 26+ years, which is undoubtedly a big factor to the slower-than-normal harvest pace. Illinois’ harvest is only 38% complete, down from the 5-year average of 52%. Rainfall so far this month has ranked as the 2ndwettest in 26+ years. Indiana is 24% harvested, only 10% behind the 5-year average. In this state, October-to-date rainfall has been the 6th wettest in 26+ years. Rain is expected across parts of the central Corn Belt over the weekend but should clear out for a few days early next week. Scattered showers are possible by mid-week. The remainder of the month is expected to remain wetter than normal for states like Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. While portions of these states could certainly trend near or below normal, the overall wetter trend will likely continue to slow harvest through the end of the month.
These wetter trends, while a negative for harvest, should aid in improving existing drought conditions across areas of the Corn Belt. Since last week, extreme drought conditions were eradicated in Iowa and areas in severe drought dropped to only 2%. Illinois still has 13% of the state in moderate drought, but areas of abnormal dryness improved slightly. The western half of the Dakotas and back into Montana continue to deal with the worst of the drought conditions currently present in the US. However, in the eastern parts of the Dakotas, drought conditions have finally been eliminated.
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