WASHINGTON — Soybean planting in Brazil is advancing at a record fast pace this year. Favorable soil moisture in many areas at the end of the soybean-free period allowed a number of states to begin planting efforts a bit earlier than normal. Since the close of the soybean-free period, the weather has been generally favorable with adequate rainfall for continued planting and early crop development. In total, about 34% of the country’s total soybean crop has been planted thus far, up from only 20% last year and ahead of the 18% five-year average. In main-producer Mato Grosso, about 62% of the crop is already in the ground, soaring well past the pace of 27% last year and 26% five-year average. Planting within the state is a bit varied, though – a trend that is not uncommon season to season. Western Mato Grosso is the furthest along, nearing almost 80% complete, while the northeastern portion of the state has been off to a slower start with just 26% of soybeans planted. In the state of Goias, planting has really only been occurring for about three weeks, but the state has already planted about half of their crop. This is a stark difference compared to the 5% that was planted at this time last year, and the five-year average of only 10%. Farmers in the state were able to plant just over one-third of the crop in just one week.
While still off to a faster than normal start, some states in south-central Brazil such as Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul have been slowed a bit due to some recent heavy rains. The state of Parana was off to one of the quickest starts to planting in state history, but rains have tempered the progress a bit in recent weeks. Planting is nearly half complete, down slightly from last year, but still up from the state’s five-year average of 44%. Not all areas of the state have been slowed, though. In fact, Western Parana is essentially done planting soybeans already – a record early end to planting for this part of the state. In Mato Grosso do Sul, about 35% of soybeans have been planted which is still up from 30% last year and a five-year average pace of about 27%.
Over the next 7 days, rains will trend above normal in states like Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, southern Goias, and northern Parana. More scattered rainfall amounts are expected in Mato Grosso. However, temperatures during this forecast period will be split. Northern Brazil, into Mato Grosso is expected to trend warmer to much warmer than normal while much of southern and central-southern Brazil trends colder than normal. The cooler temperatures should moderate somewhat by mid-week next week, although wet trends look to stick around, especially in Parana.
Early planting of soybeans doesn’t necessarily equate to high yields, though. The weather throughout the remainder of the soybean season, especially during January/February when pods will be filling, will ultimately impact final yields for the crop. Current long-range guidance for January show temperatures generally near normal and similar to last year while precipitation trends are a bit more mixed. Some areas of central and southern Brazil could trend a little drier than normal, while eastern Brazil trends wetter. As compared to last year, January could trend wetter in northeastern Brazil as well as parts of eastern Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais. Monthly trends for February show overall temperature trends close to normal but a bit warmer than last year. February precipitation will be a little drier than normal across central Brazil. Compared to last year, precipitation will be wetter in southern Brazil, yet drier in central Brazil.