WASHINGTON — Soybean planting in Brazil is nearing completion. Country-wide progress is now about 96% complete, with central Brazil having finished planting a few weeks ago. Thanks to a record-fast start to planting for many, the earliest planted crops should be ready for early harvest by the end of the month. Should harvest start before Christmas, it would be the earliest start to soybean harvest in Brazil’s history. While the conditions during much of the season thus far have been favorable, recent dry weather in parts of central and southern Brazil are starting to raise some concerns, especially for the later-planted fields. Currently, projections for production sit around 120 million tons. If realized, this would break the current record production set last year by 0.7%.
Recently, rainfall has been the heaviest in northern and northeastern Brazil while central and southern Brazil have received more spotty precipitation. Over the next 7 days, the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Parana are forecast to receive several inches of rainfall. Much of the precipitation is expected over the weekend and into early next week for these regions. Should these rains materialize as forecast, it would lessen the existing concerns and any moisture stress the crops experienced will have been minimal. In central Brazil, however, showers will be much more spotty and scattered over the next 7 days. Northwestern and northern Mato Grosso have the greatest chance of rains in the state but the rest of the state, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo are forecast to receive lighter showers. Looking ahead, the 8-14 day forecast period looks to bring some above normal moisture to parts of central and southern Brazil.
In the US, meteorological winter began on December 1st and we’re only about a week away from the astronomical start to winter on the 21st. But while winter is technically just getting underway, conditions since November have been much more winter-like for the US than recent years. November 2018 for the US as a whole trended as the 4th coldest and 5th snowiest November in 27+ years. Snow fell as far south as Louisiana during the month and many from the Plains to the Northeast received much more snow than last year. December to date has been a little more seasonal, however, trending the 12th coldest and 11th least snowy in 27+ years. And over the next 7 days, temperatures are expected to trend mostly above to well above normal across the country. The Plains and Midwest are going to be the “hot-spot” over the next several days, as average temperatures trend 10 to >15°F above normal for nearly an entire week. Trends well above normal will spread into the East by the weekend, but also bringing with it rather rainy conditions for many. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will stick around through the early work week, but are quickly replaced once again by colder than normal trends around the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. With temperatures well above normal, little to no snowfall is expected for the Plains over the next week or so. Much of the existing snow cover could melt as well.
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