WASHINGTON — The growing season pushes forward in Brazil. While the start to the 2018/19 season saw favorable weather and a very quick start to planting crops like soybeans, conditions since then have turned hot and dry across the growing regions. For many, these hot and dry conditions set in right as the early planted soybeans were reaching critical stages of development. Although rains have still fallen from time to time, total precipitation has trended well below normal for this year’s rainy season. As a result of the unfavorable weather, yields are coming in lower than expected as harvest picks up speed. Currently, about 6% of the country’s crop has been harvested, up from less than 1% last year and a 5-year average pace of 1.2%. Even back during planting, it was known that harvest would get off to a faster start this season, but the weather conditions have also accelerated the maturation process of the crop, thus bumping up the acreage that is ready to harvest.
State-by-state harvest progress varies, as always, but the theme of yields missing expectations appears to be consistent. In Mato Grosso, harvest is about 12.3% complete – a record fast start to harvest. Progress compares to only 3.2% last year and an average pace of 6.3%. In Parana, soybeans are nearly 12% harvested, well up from the 0.3% 5-year average and about 2 weeks ahead of the schedule set last season. Harvest progress in Goias is 4.1% complete, up from a 5-year average of 0.2%.
Over the next 7 days, temperatures will continue to trend above to well above normal across Brazil. Into the weekend, average temperatures are expected to trend 5-10F (2.8 – 5.6C) above normal across Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. The above normal trends could temporarily break by Sunday in the east south-central portion of the country and by Monday into the rest of central Brazil. However, hotter conditions make an abrupt return and are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the week. Precipitation trends will be fairly mixed. For the 7-day period overall, the driest trends are expected to occur in states furthest south, but even states like Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Goias should pick up some showers.
In the US, temperatures through the remainder of the week and into the weekend are expected to trend colder to much colder than normal for parts of the Upper Plains and Upper Midwest. Today, Thursday 1/24, temperatures in the Central US will largely trend below normal, while the East Coast trends significantly warmer than normal. By Friday, very cold air, more than 15F below normal will plunge into the Northern Plains. Trends of 5-10F below normal are expected to reach the Gulf Coast as well. By the weekend, some warmer trends will begin to push into areas of the Central US, but the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and northern Illinois are still expected to trend much colder than normal. While early next week could see nation-wide above normal trends for a day, the cold will return to the Central and Eastern US by Tuesday. During the week, widespread temperatures trending at least 15F below normal are expected. In the West, however, trends will largely remain warmer than normal over the next couple weeks.
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