Soybean harvest is advancing in Brazil and while yields are highly variable and generally disappointing, central Brazil finally receive some good rain which could help a portion of the crop. Although southern Brazil remained dry, favorable rains moved through Mato Grosso and states eastward last week. For the country as a whole, soybean harvest is about 26% complete, up 10 and 12 points compared to last year and the 5-year average, respectively. Country-wide production estimates for soybeans, as reported by Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, have the crop reaching 115.3 million tons, down -3.3% from last year if realized. In Mato Grosso, the rains are capable of helping improve the later planted soybean crops. Currently, just over half of the state’s crop has been harvested, almost double the pace recorded last year. Estimates for the state’s output are presently pegged to be around 31.9 million tons with an average yield near 49.4 bu/ac. If realized, production would be down -1.8% and yields down -2.7% from last season. In other states, harvest progress is as follows: Parana 25% complete, compared to 0% last year; Goias 30% complete. In the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, soybean crops are planted much later than the rest of the country. As such, about half of the crop is currently in the filling pods stage of development. Conditions are generally favorable for the crop this season, although some excessive moisture in some areas could limit yields a bit.
Despite declines in production and yield estimates for the soybean crop, estimates for the safrinha corn crop have been raised, now that planting is well under way. A faster and earlier soybean harvest has allowed farmers to get a jump on planting their second corn crop. Overall, estimates for the crop by Conab are sitting at 65.1 million tons. If realized, this year’s safrinha corn crop would account for 71.2% of Brazil’s total corn production. Full season corn, the first corn crop which is currently being harvested, has production estimates around 26.4 million tons. Not only have the recent rains benefited the crops in states like Mato Grosso, but with planting advancing quickly, all or nearly all of the crop is expected to be planted within the ideal planting window that closes later this month. Currently, Mato Grosso is just over halfway planted, also nearly double the pace of last year. In Parana, 38% of the crop has been planted, well up from last year’s 2%.
As we head into March and near the end of the Southern Hemisphere summer, rains in Brazil tend to become more scattered. By May, the dry season typically begins in central Brazil. Before the dry season sets in, the safrinha corn crop will need ample moisture to make it to harvest time – this is the reason behind the ideal planting window most states have. The latter half of February looks to be favorable for above normal precipitation for many across central Brazil. Above normal moisture could be most prominent, however, in eastern-central states. Looking into the first half of March, some drier trends are likely for states like Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and Parana, while Mato Grosso trends near to slightly wetter than normal. During the second half of the month, southern Brazil has the greatest chance for some above normal precipitation, while some spotty drier trends are possible across central Brazil. For March overall in the core safrinha corn producing region of Brazil, rainfall is expected to be near to slightly wetter than normal and improved from last year.
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