Another week and another barrage of storms in California where this has been the 2nd wettest winter in the past 26 years for the state. More heavy valley rain and mountain snow fell across the state over the past week causing flooding as many areas are very saturated from wet weather previously in the season. While the abundance of water has been drought-busting, there is a point when too much of a good thing becomes detrimental. The heavy precipitation has already caused issues in terms of flash flooding and small stream flooding, in addition to the dam failures at the Oroville Dam, but there is still trouble down the road as an epic snow pack in the mountains begins to melt in the warmer months. Flooding will be a real concern in the months ahead. As we head into March, we start inching closer to the climatological dry season for the region and the frequency of storm systems will start to drop off.
Meanwhile in the central and northern Plains, a burst of spring-like weather over the past week could spell trouble for some winter wheat crop. The recent warmth is causing some wheat to break ground, and while the plants are capable of going into and out of dormancy during the winter, large temperature differences can cause issues with the crop. Snow pack, which helps to insulate winter wheat crops from cold weather, across the northern Plains has been greatly reduced during February thanks to warm weather and lack of snow storms. However, winter is about to blast back in parts of the central and northern Plains as a winter storm moves through the region. The storm will drop widespread 6-12’’ of snow in Wyoming, Nebraska, southern South Dakota, Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Blizzard conditions are likely as strong winds develop, this will cause issues for transportation in the region. On the bright side, the renewed snow pack could help to insulate the winter wheat crop from any cold weather upcoming in March. Looking at the forecast, it looks as though a pattern change is on the horizon in March which could bring increased threats of snow and cold, but not without the brief intermittent warm-ups.
South of the Equator, the soybean harvest continues in central Brazil where farmers continue to battle rain showers to harvest their soybeans and plant safrinha corn. In states like Mato Grosso, farmers have been able to work in between showers, advancing their harvest to nearly 50% by last week. In the municipality of Sorriso, harvest is nearly 80% complete but increased rains have once again stalled efforts. Some are now becoming concerned about the seed quality of the remaining 20% of the crop.
While farmers in Mato Grosso were able to harvest between showers, the same cannot be said in Mato Grosso do Sul. Heavy rains during the first half of the month (nearly double the monthly normal), essentially halted the harvest of soybeans, leaving harvest at only 10%. Luckily, Mato Grosso do Sul has been drier than normal this week, which will have allowed farmers to advance their progress. More showers will return by next week, but will be generally close to what is normal this time of year.
Safrinha corn planting is currently ahead of last year’s pace in Mato Grosso, but behind last year in Parana. In Mato Grosso, recent reports estimate nearly half of the corn crop has been planted, compared to only 26% last year. In Parana, only about 40% had been planted according to recent surveys, down from last year’s 60%. February 20th marked the end of the “ideal planting window” in Mato Grosso for safrinha corn. While planting can continue through mid-March, later planted corn runs a higher risk of running out of moisture too soon.
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