URBANA, Ill. — Yield is the final factor now in play for this year’s corn crop. Todd Gleason has more on how looking back to the 2010 and 2011 growing seasons might offer some insight.
USDA settled the acreage figure in June, and while it could be updated for corn in the October Crop Production report, enough of the season has passed for most to be satisfied it won’t change much. This leaves yield as the only determining factor then for U.S. corn production. Right now that is set at 169.5 bushels to the acre nationwide. It could change thinks University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Todd Hubbs. If it does, he says, it might follow a pattern like the corn crop of 2010 or maybe 2011.
Hubbs: The last few years the USDA’s August forecast has been within a bushel of the final estimate. So, you start to think is this 169.5 right? In 2010 in particular we had a lot of pollination problems. The yield deteriorated from August to September, September to October, October to November, and it just kept going down. This year it feels as if Iowa and parts of Illinois/Indiana could be under similar scenario with pollination issues.
Hubbs says this is based on some of the crop tour information. The question in this case is “did the USDA miss high in August?”.
Hubbs: I think they are high. But I do not think they are twelve bushels high. I don’t even think they are six bushels high. Right now, I am sitting around 166 to 167, but it could be lower.
Lower, yes, but based on the current year ending stocks and next year’s projected use, it would take a significant reduction to stimulate demand rationing for corn, much higher prices. Hubbs is willing to wait that prospect out as it pertains to making cash sales of new crop corn.
Hubbs: I feel like it is time to sit tight and see what that yield number is in September. If it does come down substantially, we may see deterioration through the next few reports. If so this will change the price trajectory for corn through the 17/18 marketing year.
ILLINOIS’ Todd Hubbs plainly says if a farmer can wait to make new, and even old crop sales, he thinks they probably should.
[read blog post](http://farmdocdaily.— Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist – University of Illinois
Todd Gleason, Farm Broadcaster
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